Recent remarks by Fed Chairman Powell have sparked heated discussions in the market about a possible interest rate cut in September, and the probability of a cut has now fallen to 87%. However, this expectation is accompanied by concerns about potential downward risks facing the U.S. economy.

Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the inflation situation is basically controllable. Although the impact of tariffs remains unclear, the downward trend in inflation is still observable. However, he pointed out that the biggest risk lies in the simultaneous weakening of the labor market while inflation is declining. It is worth noting that while the risk of declining inflation has weakened, the unemployment rate has risen by one percentage point, a situation that historically has only occurred during economic recessions.

Powell also mentioned that although the labor market appears balanced, it is a "peculiar balance." There are abnormalities in the supply and demand of the job market, and the risks of employment downturn are rising. In addition, the slowdown in GDP growth in the first half of the year has raised concerns about potential problems in the U.S. economy.

The market's judgment on the increased probability of a rate cut in September is largely based on the interpretation of these economic risks. However, this does not mean that economic risks will necessarily occur. The market may reinterpret Powell's speech, realizing that the current rate cut measures are actually intended to prevent a potential economic recession.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin market has also experienced some fluctuations. Recently, the price has been quite volatile, and the trading turnover has slightly increased, indicating that some investors show signs of exiting. However, overall, investor sentiment remains relatively stable, and the selling pressure on Bitcoin is not significant. Today's increase is reasonable, but the market still needs to pay attention to the reactions of American investors next Monday to further assess the market trend.

This series of events highlights the subtle connection between the macroeconomic situation and the cryptocurrency market. As global economic uncertainty increases, investors need to assess the risks and opportunities of various assets more cautiously.