Spot Bitcoin ETF inflow has decreased, but BTC Whale activity indicates a bull run acceleration.

Although strong ETF inflows usually drive Bitcoin rise, recent data shows that price fluctuation may occur independently.

Written by: Biraajmaan Tamuly, CoinTelegraph

Compiled by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Summary

The inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF has plummeted over 90% in four weeks from $3 billion to $228 million.

Although strong ETF inflows usually drive Bitcoin to rise, recent data shows that price fluctuations may occur independently.

Despite facing selling pressure in the short term, the long-term buying from BTC whales indicates that the rise trend of BTC may continue.

The Bitcoin spot market BTC ETF ( ETF ) inflow has plummeted by over 90%, dropping from $3 billion in the last week of April to $228 million this week.

Historically, a slowdown in ETF inflows can impact the BTC price, especially when the average daily inflow exceeds 1.5 billion dollars for several consecutive weeks. To understand the potential impact of ETFs on Bitcoin, let's analyze four key periods of high spot ETF activity and their correlation with BTC price trends.

Current net inflow situation of spot Bitcoin ETF. Source: SoSoValue

In the first quarter of 2024, from February 2 to March 15, the spot ETF recorded a net inflow of 11.39 billion USD over seven weeks, driving prices up by 57%. However, the BTC price peaked in the fifth week, as the last two weeks' inflow of 4.8 billion USD did not elevate its value.

Bitcoin weekly price chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Similarly, in the third quarter of 2024, during the nine weeks from October 18 to December 13, Bitcoin inflows reached $16.8 billion, driving its price up by 66%. However, when the inflow slowed in the 10th week, the Bitcoin price dropped by 9%, reinforcing the link between ETF inflows and price corrections.

In the first quarter of 2025, during a two-week period (from January 17 to 24), inflows reached $3.8 billion, setting a historical high of $110,000 on January 20, but the overall price fell by 4.8%.

Recently, in the second quarter of 2025 (from April 25 to May 9), inflows reached $5.8 billion, with prices rising 22%. Despite the previous two weeks of negative net inflows, the Bitcoin price had already risen 8%.

The correlation between Bitcoin prices and spot ETFs. Data source: SoSoValue, Cointelegraph

This data challenges the view that spot ETF inflows continuously drive price rises. While strong inflows in the third quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025 indicate that robust capital inflows are pushing prices up, data from the first quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 show that, despite significant capital inflows, prices may still stagnate or decline. The rise in the second quarter of 2025 is partially independent of spot ETF activity, suggesting other driving factors such as U.S. tariff reductions, retail investor interest, or Bitcoin whales accumulating.

Given that the current inflow is $228 million, historical trends tend to be bearish, suggesting a potential pullback. However, recent whale activity presents a contrary viewpoint, painting a more optimistic picture.

Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure, but Whales May Continue This Trend

Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson stated that with the buy/sell pressure differential turning negative, Bitcoin is facing selling pressure in the short term. Charts indicate that whales have started to sell Bitcoin between $105,000 and $100,000, and Wedson marked this level as a risk. This bearish trend, combined with the cumulative volume differential being negative, suggests that there is selling pressure in the short term.

Bitcoin buy/sell pressure increment. Data source: X.com

However, the long-term buying pressure remains strong, indicating that this decline is a correction rather than a reversal. CryptoQuant's data shows that the profit-taking by whales during the current period is relatively lower than previous price peaks. Anonymous analyst Blitzz Trading pointed out: "Compared to previous rebounds, we can see that the profit-taking by whales during the recent surge has significantly decreased. This may indicate that the rising trend could continue. This chart is worth keeping a close eye on."

Bitcoin whales. Source: CryptoQuant