On how to manage positions for the end of the world before the third world war comes, after Trump goes crazy.

Author: danny

"True security is not relying on predicting the future, but rather designing a structure that can survive regardless of how the future unfolds." — "Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms" Mark Spitznagel

If you take too much risk, it will likely cost you wealth over time. And at the same time, if you don’t take enough risk, it will also likely cost you wealth over time.

Mark Spitznagel is one of the most renowned hedge fund managers on Wall Street and a partner of Nassim Taleb (author of "The Black Swan" and "Antifragile"). His firm, Universa Investments, is one of the very few funds globally that truly focuses on tail risk hedging, making significant profits in both 2008 and 2020. (He is famously known as the King of the Black Swan.)

The core of this book is: how to build a Safe Haven Portfolio that can still protect the principal during extreme events.

Prologue: We are approaching the next big rift.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

On this day in 2025, we find ourselves at a paradoxical juncture: the US stock market continues to hit new highs, yet long-term bond yields are above 4.5%; the dollar is strong, but consumption is weak; AI is causing a capital frenzy, while the world is plunged into fragmentation and war risks; pumpfun has just been banned by x and is rendered inactive, while tron has boarded the president's big ship to land on Nasdaq....

Israel and Iran have just finished a round of drone warfare; India and Pakistan are increasing troops at the border; Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been bombed back, and the Ukrainian Air Force has gained Western authorization to strike deep into Russian territory; meanwhile, in the United States, Trump's "madness" may return, and an era of tariffs + quantitative easing might come back.

1. The ultimate truth of wealth in chaotic times: it's not about earning the most, but about being able to afford the losses.

The author of the book "Safe Haven", Mark Spitznagel, has a very unique positioning in the financial world. He is neither a slow-growing compounding type like Buffett nor a speculator like Soros.

He only does one thing: design a portfolio that can survive during a "black swan event."

This sounds plain, yet it is a form of extremely scarce wisdom - especially today when everyone is talking about "growth," "innovation," and "AI." He presents a cruel yet real fact in the book:

His famous quote: "What truly determines your financial destiny is not the average rate of return, but whether you can avoid a moment of 'zeroing out.'"

He used mathematics and history to prove: even if a portfolio earns 15% every year, as long as it experiences a -80% black swan event once, it will never recover. There are no hedging assets, only investment structures that can afford to lose.

It is not about holding a "gold" or "Bitcoin", but about building a structural portfolio that can survive the storm.

Compound interest does not break in growth, but breaks in disaster.

2. 5 Life-saving Investment Rules from "Safe Haven"

In this book, Spitznagel not only critiques the blind spots of traditional asset allocation but also proposes five very hardcore hedging strategies applicable to "extreme times:"

1. Safe assets ≠ Low volatility assets

Many people misunderstand "stability" as "safety."

In 2008, gold and bonds both fell at one point, and the only thing that rose was - long-term deep out-of-the-money put options (SPX PUT).

A true safe-haven asset is one that experiences explosive growth in the event of a systemic collapse. A true "safe harbor" asset is one that rises when everything else is going poorly.

2. When a black swan arrives, the magic of "compound interest" will backfire on you.

A drop of -50% means you need +100% to break even. But black swans often don't drop by -50%; they can suddenly go to zero.

His conclusion is simple: you cannot survive by gambling; you must design a structure to ensure survival.

"The compounding effect is the most destructive force in the universe." ( differs from Buffett's way of thinking.

3. Do not predict the future, but prepare structurally for the "worst".

"You can't predict. You can only prepare."

"Prediction" is an illusion for most investors; preparation is the real way to control risk.

You cannot predict wars, financial crises, or regime changes – but you can allocate assets so that they "don't die" in any outcome.

4. The convex yield structure is the true safe-haven tool.

The meaning of a convex yield structure is:

Slight loss or break-even under normal circumstances

Doubling or even increasing by tens of times during extreme events.

For example: VIX long, SPX deep put, gold forward call, USD/non-sovereign asset hedge position

5. "Geographical diversity + custody diversity" is the dividing line between life and death.

Where to place your assets, who will custody them, and whether you can control them - is far more important than you might think - your geographical location determines whether your assets are truly yours in times of crisis.

Do not only hold in one country, do not only hold through banks, and definitely do not go all in on system assets (such as local currency, domestic stocks, local real estate). Insurance does not exist in chaotic times.

In addition, the self-custody and convenience of crypto are also a good choice.

3. What is the structure of a "hedging investment portfolio"?

The structure of Spitznagel's assertion is:

90–95%: Low-risk, stable compound interest assets (such as short-term US Treasuries, cash, basic dividend stocks)

5–10%: High-leverage "tail hedge" positions (such as long VIX, SPX forward puts, gold/bitcoin backup)

For example in the book:

80% invested in the S&P 500 and 20% in gold

50% in the S&P 500 and 50% in Trend-following CTAs

66% in the S&P 500 and 34 in long-Term Treasuries

85% in the S&P 500 and 15% in Swiss Franc

This structure yields mediocre returns during normal times but explodes during black swan events (e.g., the pandemic stock crash in March 2020, Universa Fund rose by 4000%).

Based on his articles and reports, his evaluations of different asset classes

"The net portfolio effect – or the cost-effectiveness of a safe haven – is thus driven by how little of that safe haven is needed for a given level of risk mitigation."

4. The "Black Swan Survival Portfolio" prepared for 2025: What should you do?

In light of the current risk environment, a possible "layered asset structure":

Layer 0: Healthy body

No infectious diseases, long-term illnesses, body fat should not be too low, develop a habit of exercise, cultivate a body with mobility; able to drive different modes of transportation, can cook.

Layer 1: Anti-systemic risk assets (self-custodied assets)

Used to save lives when the system completely collapses

Type Proportion Suggested Characteristics Physical Gold (preferably coins) 5–10% Not dependent on government recognition, can be used for "running away" BTC (cold wallet storage) 5–10% Digital gold, can be carried globally but has regulatory risks Overseas land/passport 5–10% Necessary for relocation and rebuilding, transferring identity

Layer 2: Tail Risk Hedging Position (High-Leverage Hedging Assets)

Used for surging in a black swan event, to replenish the portfolio.

Type allocation suggestion characteristics SPX deep put 1–2% long-term options, maximum alpha source VIX long 1–3% when market volatility surges high explosive power gold call options 1–2% in scenarios of high inflation or war.

Layer 3: Liquidity + Growth Assets (Normal Income Source)

Stable living and cash flow for times when the economy does not collapse.

Type Allocation Recommendation Characteristics Short-term US Treasury ETF / Government Bond Money Market Fund 20–30% Safe and stable, ensuring liquidity Diversified Global High Dividend Stocks 20–30% Source of income, reducing single-country risk Emerging Market Real Estate + US Dollar-denominated REITs 5–10% Diversified cash flow

"In investing, good defense leads to good offense."

V. Conclusion: Everything may collapse, but you do not have to collapse with it.

What "Safe Haven" really wants to tell us is:

You cannot stop wars, crashes, and revolutions—but you can design an asset structure in advance that will not go to zero in any situation.