Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $120,000 before the release of CPI in the USA

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) recently reached a new all-time high of $123,218, but then it slightly decreased. This may be related to expectations of inflation data, as the consumer price index (CPI) in the USA may increase by 2.7% year-on-year in June

Let's understand what is happening in the Bitcoin market (BTC) and what to expect from the cryptocurrency's price.

Spot trading supports Bitcoin

The volume of spot trading has increased by 50% since July 9, indicating strong interest in purchasing Bitcoin. This shows that the rally is not only related to derivatives, as the volume of futures has increased by 31.9%. This data speaks to a growing interest from spot investors, although both volumes remain below average levels since the beginning of 2025.

Spot trading volume is 23.4% lower than the average since the beginning of the year, while futures are 21.9% lower, indicating improved market participation, but still cautious compared to the beginning of the year.

Despite the positive dynamics, investors continue to exercise caution. The slow growth of trading volumes indicates the level of caution from both institutional and retail traders.

The volume of spot trading of Bitcoin. Source: Glassnode

The IOMAP data ( In/Out of the Money Around Price ) highlights an important demand zone between $114,000 and $117,500. Over 189,590 BTC were purchased in this range, amounting to over $22.3 billion.

This accumulation shows that many holders have purchased Bitcoin at these levels and are unlikely to sell at a loss. This demand zone plays a key role in creating support for the price of Bitcoin and reducing the likelihood of a cryptocurrency drop. If the price approaches this level, it may trigger buying.

IOMAP data for Bitcoin. Source: IntoTheBlock

BTC Forecast: Should We Expect a Recovery

At the time of writing this analysis, Bitcoin is trading at $117,209, down from a recent all-time high of $123,218. Despite this, the cryptocurrency has increased by approximately 9% since the beginning of the month.

These factors indicate the possibility of Bitcoin recovering in the coming days. However, it may first drop to $115,000 before bouncing off this support and heading towards the $120,000 mark. This movement is likely to follow established market patterns.

Bitcoin price analysis. Source: TradingView

Against the backdrop of the upcoming inflation report in the US, concerns are rising in the market. The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to increase to 2.7% year-on-year in June, compared to 2.4% in May. This potential rise in inflation could lead to a tightening of monetary policy, which would negatively impact risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

As a result, Bitcoin could fall below $115,000 and even down to $110,000. Such a decline would cancel the bullish scenario and mark the beginning of a deeper market correction.

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