Bitcoin Price Prediction: Satoshi Nakamoto Era Whale Selling of $9.7 Billion Intensifies Fluctuation, BTC Divergence Still Bullish at $125,000?

Bitcoin (BTC) early Whale exit triggered panic, as Satoshi Nakamoto era began, a long-term holding Whale from 2011 exited the market at a historic price of 9.7 billion USD, while Galaxy Digital facilitated large-scale liquidations across multiple exchanges. However, Bitcoin's price does not seem to be significantly affected, and with institutions getting on board forming a divergence, analysts say Bitcoin remains bullish in challenging the 125,000 USD target.

The Whale has transferred over 80,000 BTC in batches, causing Bitcoin to plummet 4.21% last week to $115,444, while Galaxy distributed over 17,123 BTC to CEX exchange, worth $1.98 billion.

It is worth noting that analysis indicates that these sales may be related to a hacker who controls a Whale wallet and conducts sales through Galaxy Digital.

Despite concerns about market turmoil, analysts believe that the selling pressure may be absorbed without causing significant long-term effects.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out: "Old whales will sell to new long-term whales, indicating that institutional adoption is reshaping traditional market dynamics."

Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin is recovering from the classic bullish trap psychology while forming a descending wedge pattern, targeting a breakout above the $125,000 level, with institutional buyers including BlackRock and Strategy actively absorbing the distribution.

Descending wedge breakout target $125,000 new high

The 4-hour chart of Bitcoin shows a classic descending wedge pattern, with the price currently testing the upper limit of around $118,347.

The descending wedge represents one of the most reliable bullish reversal patterns, where the descending highs and lows converge and tend to resolve.

The blue projection line extending to $125,000 indicates the measurable movement potential after successfully breaking through the wedge.

Volume characteristics indicate that as the pattern matures, participation will decrease, while activity during breakout attempts will increase.

The current position near the upper boundary of the wedge indicates that Bitcoin is in the final phase of its pattern, and a breakout could trigger a significant amount of momentum-based buying, thereby pushing it past the previous peak of $123,000 and setting a new historical high.

This convergence creates a natural winding effect, where volatility first compresses and then sharply expands under resolution.

(Source: Trading View)

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Whale Accumulation Divergence Indicates Institutional Absorption

Whale holding analysis reveals interesting divergences. Despite the attention on the distribution from the Satoshi Nakamoto era, the accumulation by major shareholders continues to accelerate.

The year-on-year change in the holdings of Whales shows a dramatic increase, reaching levels never seen since the last major accumulation phase.

When old whales diversify their holdings, new institutional investors are actively accumulating Bitcoin at the current levels.

This accumulation pattern indicates that mature investors view the current price as an attractive entry point rather than a distribution level.

Recent institutional activities include BlackRock acquiring an additional 1,204 BTC, while MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by 4,225, thereby enhancing the absorption capacity of Whale distribution.

Retail sentiment remains uncertain, and the divergent behavior of whales continuing to accumulate usually indicates that smart money is preparing for the next significant advancement.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin's dominance continues to decline, falling from 65.95% to 61.25%, indicating healthy capital rotation, suggesting that Bitcoin can continue to rise while expanding throughout the cryptocurrency market, thereby driving a broader industry strength.

(Source: X)