Crypto Assets market heats up again, on-chain data interprets market trends

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has once again surpassed the $94,000 mark, driving a general increase in other Crypto Assets. Behind this round of market activity, has on-chain data already shown bull market signals? By analyzing key indicators such as trading volume, user behavior, and coin distribution, we can gain insights into the market direction from the underlying logic.

Trading Activity Analysis

In the past 24 hours, the total trading volume across the network reached $39.9 billion, with the number of trades exceeding 7.2 million and 3.03 million unique participating addresses, involving 13,800 types of tokens. Since July 2023, trading volume has gradually climbed from a low of 2M to 10M, particularly accelerating after April 2024, indicating a significant increase in market liquidity. Although there was a sharp decline in on-chain trading occurrences in March 2025, the overall trend still shows a short-term increase.

Trader Behavior Analysis

The trend chart of on-chain traders reflects the fluctuations since 2023. In October 2023, the number of traders briefly fell below 2M, but quickly rebounded to 8M in the second half of 2024, maintaining a relatively high level in January 2025. This change aligns closely with the market cycle's "recovery-prosperity" phase. It is noteworthy that the growth in the number of traders is not linear, with short-term pullbacks occurring in the middle of each quarter (such as May and August). The chart also reflects the periodic impact of significant news on institutional and retail investor sentiment. However, the current number of daily active traders at 3.03M is still at a relatively low point, only about one-third of the peak period, and requires further observation.

on-chain asset distribution status

Among active traders, wallet addresses can be further segmented based on position size. Currently, the number of "whale" wallets holding over $100 million in assets is 1,052, while the number of retail wallets (holding less than $10,000) is as high as approximately 214 million, but the total holding amount is far lower than that of whales. This "80/20 split" phenomenon is quite common in financial markets — large funds often enter the market first, followed by medium and small funds driving up asset prices. It is worth noting that the number of "dolphin" (1 million - 10 million USD) and "fish" (10,000 - 100,000 USD) level wallets also provides important support for market liquidity.

Comparison of Public Chain Ecosystems

Data shows that the transaction activity on the Polygon blockchain is relatively stable, with daily transaction volumes maintaining around 4K. It is noteworthy that on-chain data from Ethereum indicates a significant decline in on-chain activity at the beginning of 2025, while this trend reflects in the price with a certain lag. With the emergence of more Layer 1 public chains, the decline in Ethereum's ecosystem activity may reshape the market landscape.

Summary and Outlook

Despite Bitcoin's price returning to $90,000 and many small crypto assets showing considerable gains, the current on-chain transaction volume in the market has not yet recovered to a more active level. With new policies and regulatory measures coming into effect in 2025, the structure of on-chain traders is showing a trend towards diversification, with both large funds and retail investors being active simultaneously. In the face of emerging hotspots and sectors, investors still need to closely monitor marginal changes in data, maintain rational judgment in a fervent market, and pay attention to the movements of large funds, being wary of the short-term selling pressure risk that may arise from the high concentration of capital.