#美国经济指标与政策# Looking back at the changes in Fed policies over the past few decades, it is not difficult to find that the current situation is somewhat similar to the early 1980s. At that time, the Fed, under the leadership of Paul Volcker, also faced the challenge of high inflation and implemented aggressive interest rate hikes. Now, Bostic expects to cut rates once this year, which seems to signal the imminent end of the tightening cycle.

But history tells us that policy shifts are often a gradual process. The inflation surge at the end of the 1970s serves as a warning: premature easing may lead to a rebound in inflation. Therefore, although the job market has slowed down, Bostic emphasizes that the inflation risk still outweighs the employment risk, and this cautious approach is wise.

From an investment perspective, in this policy environment, we need to pay more attention to high-quality assets that can still maintain profitability in a high-interest-rate environment. At the same time, we should be cautious of the market fluctuations that may arise from the transition of economic cycles. After all, every policy shift contains both opportunities and risks.