From Wilderness to Universality: The Transformation and Future Prospects of the Web3 Industry

The year 2024 is an extraordinary one for the crypto world. This year, crypto assets have transformed from products of niche subcultures into asset classes with universal value. This shift is mainly driven by two landmark events: the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, and the election of a crypto-friendly president on November 6. These two events have pushed the price of Bitcoin from the $30,000 range up to $60,000, and further climbing to $100,000.

Unlike the bull market in 2021, the bull market in 2024 is backed by deeper changes. New interest groups are actively exerting greater political influence, efficiently promoting the universal values of cryptocurrency through political means. This shift from "grassroots" to "universal" profoundly affects the motivations for capital inflow, which now includes more considerations of "store of value" and "inflation resistance" beyond mere speculation.

This transformation has not only affected the upper class but has also brought about positive changes in mindset for ordinary practitioners. People can introduce their industries with more confidence, which will also reduce friction costs in areas such as talent influx and entrepreneurial cooperation.

Looking ahead to 2025, discussions around the value of representative crypto assets such as Bitcoin will become even more heated. Directions to focus on include:

• Progress on Bitcoin reserve-related legislation at the national, organizational, and corporate levels.
• Relevant remarks from politically influential figures
• The allocation of Bitcoin in the balance sheets of publicly listed companies in the United States

From Chaos to Order: Improved Regulatory Frameworks Help Break Out Web3 Scenarios

The cryptocurrency industry is undergoing a transformation from chaos to order, closely related to the improvement of regulatory frameworks by sovereign nations around the world. With the new president taking office and changes in the SEC leadership, a more inclusive and crypto-friendly regulatory framework is to be expected. Based on the recent progress in judgments of related cases, the introduction of this framework is not far off.

This change will provide a more solid basis for breaking through the boundaries of Web3 business scenarios, without bearing excessive potential legal risks. Information to pay attention to in 2025 includes the outcomes of lawsuit judgments, developments in relevant legislation, personnel changes at the SEC, statements from key decision-makers, and more.

Potential breakthrough scenarios in the future include:

1. Ce-DeFi Scenario: Connecting traditional financial instruments with on-chain tools to enhance capital efficiency. This includes the flow from traditional finance to on-chain (, such as financial innovations from certain companies ), as well as the transmission from on-chain to traditional finance (, such as RWA, on-chain financing channels, stablecoins, etc. ).

2. The application of DAO in the management of off-chain entity businesses: With the relaxation of regulations, more traditional business organizations may choose to adopt the DAO model for internal governance in order to obtain cheaper financial services.

From Recession to Bubble: The Three Main Axes of Web3 Business Development

The Web3 business hotspots in 2024 have undergone significant changes. In the first half of the year, the LRT market, represented by a certain Layer, reflected the characteristics of an industry recession. Mid-year, as the market environment improved, the focus shifted to the application layer. In the second half of the year, as the Federal Reserve entered a rate-cutting cycle, the market rapidly became speculative, with capital heavily chasing short-term high-return projects.

Looking ahead to 2025, traditional Web3 businesses may develop in the following three directions:

1. A more innovative grand narrative: Capital tends to chase high-growth sectors, and any new narrative that makes sense could become a target for speculation.

2. More stable business revenue: Some mature sectors will return to reasonable valuations, and the pursuit of real income will become the main theme. The interest rate trading market in the DeFi or Ce-DeFi sector is worth paying attention to.

3. A more balanced interest game model: Traditional financing models have a prisoner's dilemma and require exploration of better interest distribution models. Some innovative projects may have already discovered the secrets within.

From Conservatism to Reform: Opportunities Brought by Uncertainty

In 2025, political changes will trigger major upheavals in the economic and cultural fields, filled with uncertainty. These uncertainties will bring significant volatility to the risk market.

It is worth noting that the restructuring plan of a certain trading platform will allow users to start receiving repayments. This may trigger some capital to engage in risk-hedging operations before the new government takes office, leading to a "flight to safety" market trend.

At the same time, the NFT sector combined with emerging narratives such as AI may迎来第二春. The development of the NFT market in 2025 is worth close attention.