Recently, SWBC Chief Investment Officer Chris Brigati expressed doubts about the possibility of the Fed lowering interest rates this year. He believes that the most likely scenario is that there will be only one rate cut this year, or it may not happen at all. Brigati pointed out that the Fed maintains a high level of consistency in policy communication and adopts a cautious attitude towards the decision-making process.

It is noteworthy that this week Trump will have the opportunity to appoint new Fed governors, which may affect the distribution of positions among the voting members of the Fed. However, the core reason for Brigati's cautious stance on interest rate cuts remains the persistent issue of inflation stickiness. The Fed has repeatedly emphasized its high concern regarding inflation stickiness.

Despite the Fed's previous downplaying of the impact of employment data, the recent attitude seems to have changed. Brigati stated that unless more clear signs of deterioration in the job market are seen, the extent of interest rate cuts will be very limited. Currently, the market can only refer to the latest non-farm employment data as this limited indicator.

However, what is truly concerning is that inflation may remain high or even worsen. If the Fed lowers interest rates while inflation remains high or rises, it will inevitably lead to a new policy dilemma. In this case, the Fed may face greater pressure to find a balance between controlling inflation and stimulating economic growth.

Overall, there are still many uncertainties in the direction of the Fed's policies. Market participants need to closely monitor future economic data and statements from Fed officials to better anticipate the direction of monetary policy.