TON: From Traffic Dividend to Structural Reconstruction

In the past two years, the TON( open network) has undergone an amazing transformation from silence to explosion. Relying on Telegram's large user base, TON quickly established a strong presence in the crypto community. Narratives such as gamified ecosystems, bot economies, and payment systems once pushed TON into the spotlight. However, with price fluctuations, market capitalization declines, and decreasing activity, TON has also exposed deep structural issues, such as chip concentration, ecological homogeneity, and weak infrastructure.

This article will systematically outline the chip distribution, token economy, user and capital flow, and development ecosystem of TON, attempting to answer a core question: Does the short-term prosperity of TON have a foundational structure to support its long-term value?

TON Chips Are Extremely Concentrated: The Gap Between Whales and Retail Investors

TON has faced the problem of high concentration of chips from the very beginning. Due to setbacks in the early stages of the project, most of the tokens are concentrated in the hands of a few early miners. Currently, nearly 99.9% of users hold less than 100 TON, while the number of addresses holding a large amount of tokens is limited. This severe polarization poses a significant challenge for TON.

TON valuation fluctuates, but still has upside potential

In the past year, the price of TON tokens has dropped by more than 50% from its peak, and its market value has also significantly shrunk. The total locked value of the ecosystem ( TVL ) has plummeted from a high of $770 million to around $140 million. Nevertheless, in terms of market value, TON still has room for recovery, and the key lies in whether it can convert ecological enthusiasm into long-term value.

TON inflation is controllable, and application scenarios are yet to be expanded.

The initial supply of TON tokens is 5 billion, with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.6%. Currently, the tokens are mainly used for validator rewards, payment of platform service fees, staking, and more. The official Telegram Stars program aims to link core functions such as advertising and fund transfers with the TON ecosystem, but it will take time to observe the effects.

The Reality After the TON Traffic Decline: Growing Pains of Ecological Transition

Currently, TON ecosystem projects are concentrated in a few areas such as gaming and NFTs, lacking diversified layouts. On-chain activity continues to decline, reflecting a weakening of ecological growth momentum. The unique development architecture has also limited project incubation and innovation to a certain extent. If TON cannot move away from its reliance on short-term popularity and expand sustainable application scenarios, it will be difficult to establish long-term value.

Current Status of the TON User and Developer Ecosystem

The number of TON users is growing rapidly, but their activity has significantly decreased due to the neglect of the ecosystem. The number of developers is relatively stable but has declined, and infrastructure still needs improvement. The small number of validators poses a certain degree of centralization risk. Overall, it shows a "user-first" characteristic, but it also masks the problem of an unstable ecosystem foundation.

The Future of TON: Towards Compatibility and Connectivity

To address the compatibility issues with mainstream EVM applications, TON has launched the TAC architecture. As an independent EVM-compatible public chain, TAC aims to bridge TON with the Ethereum ecosystem, creating a unified experience for users and developers. Whether this architecture can successfully integrate into the EVM world and build a robust developer ecosystem will be key to determining TON's future.

After the traffic dividend fades, what can truly be retained is the self-sustaining ability of public chains. TON is still at a critical crossroads, and its future development is worth ongoing attention.