Federal Reserve Watch: A 25 basis point rate cut in September seems to be a done deal, with at least two more cuts expected before the end of the year.

According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate unchanged (4.25%-4.50%) in September is 11.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut (4.00%-4.25%) is 88.4%. It can basically be concluded that a 25 basis points rate cut in September is almost certain.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October (4.25%-4.50%) is 4.2%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points (4.00%-4.25%) is 39.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points (3.75%-4.00%) is 56.7%. It can be basically determined that the possibility of not cutting interest rates in October is extremely low.

Looking ahead to December, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut (3.75%-4.00%) is only 45.3%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut (4.00%-4.25%) is 42.7%, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 11.2%.

It can be seen that the Federal Reserve may face at least two rate cuts before the end of the year, with each cut approximately 25 basis points.

Conclusion:

In summary, a rate cut in September seems to be a foregone conclusion, and it has also shown the Federal Reserve's determination to cut rates at least two more times before the end of the year is becoming increasingly clear.

This interest rate policy adjustment is expected to have a significant impact on global financial markets, including the stock market, bond market, and cryptocurrency market.

In such a large context, investors need to closely monitor policy trends to make more informed investment decisions.

What is your view on the potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve? Will your investment strategy change in response to the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments?

#美联储降息 # CME Federal Reserve Watch