Carnival or Trap? After ETH hits a new high, the "love-hate" relationship between institutional betting and high leverage.

According to the latest analysis post from Matrixport on August 11, as the price of Ethereum (ETH) successfully breaks through the $4000 mark, it also reaches a new high since the end of 2021.

The strong upward trend in this round is mainly driven by institutional buying and a wave of short liquidations. On-chain data shows that the daily trading volume has exceeded 1.8 million transactions, and more than 30% of the supply has been staked.

In addition, the recent ruling by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that liquid staking tokens do not fall under securities is a significant regulatory boost that further enhances market confidence.

Driven by this optimistic sentiment, institutional investors have significantly accelerated their positioning. Data shows that the total amount of ETH held by some listed companies' treasury has surpassed 3.5 billion USD, nearly a tenfold increase compared to last year.

At the same time, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF also set a historical record for a single day net inflow of $726.6 million, with total holdings exceeding 5 million ETH, approximately $20.3 billion.

In addition, the large purchases by a number of well-known institutions, along with the scalability improvements brought by the upcoming Pectra and Fusaka network upgrades, provide solid support for Ethereum's medium to long-term fundamentals.

However, amid the bullish sentiment, the market has also issued short-term cautious signals. Analyst CryptoOnchain pointed out that the current estimated leverage ratio (ELR) across all exchanges has reached 0.68, close to historical highs, indicating that the overall market leverage is too high, increasing the risk of significant short-term fluctuations.

In summary, the market presents a complex pattern of short-term volatility coexisting with a medium-term bullish outlook. In the short term, high leverage and testing of key resistance levels have intensified the downside risks; however, from a medium-term perspective, strong institutional inflows, sustained ETF demand, and growth in network fundamentals provide robust support for the market, which is expected to maintain an overall upward trend.

Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen believes that the next target price for ETH is $4362, while the historical high of $4892 remains its ultimate milestone.

CryptoOnchain pointed out that the range of 3980 to 4020 USD is considered a key support in the short term, and once the resistance range of 4450 to 4550 USD is broken, it will open up further upward space.

What do you think ETH will do next? Leave your opinion in the comments!

#以太坊 # ETH