The US CPI data for July has been released, and the decision to cut interest rates in September cannot be delayed!

On August 13, it was reported that the highly anticipated July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for U.S. residents was officially released last night, and the published results largely met market expectations.

According to the latest data from Yingwei Caijing, the year-on-year forecast for the July CPI is 2.8%, while the actual published value is 2.7%, which meets or even falls below market expectations. This result indicates that the July CPI data is paving the way for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

However, the core CPI year-on-year forecast for July was 3.0%, while the actual published value was 3.1%, marking the first time in nearly six months that the actual published value exceeded the forecast. This result has broken the market's "comfort zone" and reminds the public that the battle against inflation is far from over.

According to the CME's "FedWatch" tool, the current market expects a 94.3% probability for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with only a 5.7% probability of maintaining the current rate. Furthermore, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in October is 63.5%, with only a 3.0% probability of keeping the rate unchanged; while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points in December is 50.8%. These data further reinforce the market's expectations and confidence in "at least two rate cuts before the end of the year."

At the same time, U.S. macroeconomic data also shows some pressure. According to real-time data from us-debt-clock, the total U.S. national debt has exceeded 37 trillion dollars for the first time, currently standing at 37,004,817,627,586 dollars. This figure highlights the severe imbalance in the U.S. fiscal situation, as the fiscal deficit continues to expand and the scale of debt keeps rising, increasing the fiscal burden and posing potential threats to economic growth.

In this context, U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra urged the Federal Reserve to significantly cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. Becerra believes that, given the weak labor market conditions and the ongoing expansion of the national debt, stronger economic stimulus is needed. This call reflects the government's concerns about the current economic situation and the urgent need for monetary policy adjustment.

In summary, the release of the July CPI data provides more basis for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, but the unexpected rise in core CPI also reminds the market that inflationary pressures still exist. Under the dual pressure of macroeconomic data and the U.S. fiscal situation, the Federal Reserve's decision-making will become more complex. Investors need to closely monitor these two "signal sources" to grasp the direction of the interest rate cut path in real time.

#CPI # interest rate cut