Bitcoin Market Perspective Analysis: Rebound or Downward Correction?

As the open interest of Bitcoin rises and the key price levels on the liquidation map continue to increase, market divergence has further intensified. Currently, there are mainly two viewpoints: the rebound turns into a reversal, or a second distribution of the downward correction.

Both viewpoints start from a supply and demand analysis but arrive at different conclusions. The viewpoint supporting the reversal believes that demand is greater than supply, while the viewpoint supporting the downward correction believes that supply is greater than demand.

The view that a rebound may turn into a reversal

This view mainly argues that demand exceeds supply from three aspects:

1. Relationship between short-term and long-term holders

   • Long-term holders' profit and loss ratio ( LTH-RPC ) changes can capture market bottom signals
   • Short-term holder profit and loss ratio (STH-RPC) is a right-side entry signal

2. The supply and demand relationship between stablecoins and Bitcoin ( BTC-SSR )

   • The BTC-SSR trend shows that the momentum of stablecoin inflow into Bitcoin is accumulating.

3. The formation of dual anchor effects in high and low chip concentration areas.

   • About 11% of chips are gathered in the ranges of $60,000-$70,000 and $93,000-$100,000.
   • May limit the price range to $70,000-$93,000

In addition, the impact of tariff policies is weakening, and market sentiment is gradually easing.

Downward correction's second distribution perspective

This view holds that the US stock market has entered a technical bear market, and Bitcoin cannot be isolated. The reasons are as follows:

• The recent trend of US stocks aligns with the characteristics of the Wyckoff distribution phase.
• Experienced stages such as initial supply point, buying frenzy, natural pullback, and secondary testing.
• The final supply point has appeared, indicating that the distribution is complete.

The divergence of the two viewpoints mainly lies in:

1. Expectations for the future of the US stock market
2. Can Bitcoin decouple from the U.S. stock market and strengthen independently?

The current market divergence is intensifying, and the future trend remains to be seen.