In the current macroeconomic environment, a potential unfavourable information factor cannot be ignored. The latest borrowing plan released by the U.S. Treasury Department shows that over $1 trillion needs to be borrowed in the third quarter, and it plans to increase the balance of the Treasury General Account (TGA) to $850 billion by the end of September.

To achieve this goal, the Ministry of Finance will significantly increase the issuance of short-term government bonds (T-bill). Although the Ministry plans to alleviate market pressure by increasing repurchase operations, this is merely a structural adjustment to maintain normal market operations, rather than a market rescue action.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) balance is nearing exhaustion. This means that an important source of liquidity in the U.S. financial markets is about to run out, while the government needs to absorb large amounts of funds from the market. The combined effect of these two factors could trigger a severe funding crunch in September and may have a ripple effect on the cryptocurrency market.

Considering these factors, we may see the real market trend starting in October, which may be similar to the situation in 2024. Investors need to closely monitor this potential market risk and prepare for possible fluctuations.

In this macro environment, the cryptocurrency market may experience a period of adjustment. Investors should remain vigilant, monitor market trends, and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner to respond to potential market fluctuations.