Recent analyses show a significant divergence between the performance of the U.S. economy and the stock market. Despite the S&P 500 index recording an increase of nearly 10% this year, economic data indicates a slowdown in growth.

In April of this year, the S&P 500 index experienced a correction of about 20%, but then rebounded strongly. In stark contrast, the annualized growth rate of real consumer spending in the first half of 2025 was only 1%, while the growth rate of real GDP continued to slow down. This weakening of economic growth momentum has raised market concerns about the economic outlook.

It is worth noting that, according to a survey by Bloomberg, analysts expect the average probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession in the next year to be as high as 35%. This data reflects the cautious attitude of professionals towards the medium-term trend of the U.S. economy.

The strong performance of the stock market contrasts with the slowdown in economic growth, raising investors' doubts about whether market valuations are reasonable. Some believe that the current stock market may be overly optimistic and fails to adequately reflect the challenges facing the real economy.

However, some analyses indicate that the rise in the stock market may reflect investors' expectations for future economic recovery or optimism about the long-term growth potential of certain industries, particularly the technology sector.

In any case, the divergence between the economy and the stock market is worth close attention. Investors should not only focus on stock market trends when making decisions, but also need to comprehensively consider macroeconomic indicators and various factors that may affect the future direction of the economy.