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Watch more and move less, wait quietly, and capture the "bullback" signal in the NFT market
In September 2020, an innovative term "NFT (Non-Fungible Token)" began to slowly come into people's field of vision and was captured by a few early players and institutions. And starting from February 2021, NFT has completely begun to grow explosively, with a weekly trading volume of more than 2 million US dollars, and within a few months, the total market value of most NFT projects has increased by as much as 2000%, and a large number of outsiders have squeezed their heads Learn and get in.
More and more people come in, and the "consensus" spreads among the crowd. But for more people, how to invest and make profits from the rapidly growing NFT market is the first goal. The rules of the NFT game are very different from the traditional way of doing things; although consensus is a wonderful thing, and the culture behind many projects is worthy of our attention and love, we cannot deny that most NFT projects in the bull market are more like drums and flowers In the game, it is difficult for a small picture to have such a high value at the beginning.
Therefore, less than 150 days later, most users just figured out what a "non-homogeneous token" is and what PFP is, and when they shouted "Everything can be NFT" and were about to make a big splash, the liquidity crisis It has quietly penetrated into every corner of the market, and the market began to plummet. In the short term, people still hold the hope of "just a callback", but the situation has not improved since then. A large number of projects have returned to zero, and the top blue-chip project BAYC has also fallen by nearly 90% from its high point.
According to NFTGo data, there are only more than 40,000 profitable users in the past 7 days, while as many as 450,000 loss-making users. It can be seen that the market has been in a cold winter.
Someone jokingly said: "The essence of NFT is to see a small picture you like, Ctrl C + Ctrl V, do you still want to buy it?"
Every round of bull and bear will change a large number of users, and NFT is also experiencing its first bear market. Those who are still paying attention to the NFT track must be racking their brains - when will NFT pick up? How to catch the warming signal in advance?
First of all, we must understand that the NFT market is generally difficult to pick up on its own, and the essence of the so-called plate rotation is the entry of funds. The price of Token can depend on the large economic environment, etc., but for NFT, it has not yet become the investment target of many traditional investors and institutions, and it is difficult to be affected by the traditional financial environment.
Therefore, the recovery signal of NFT depends more on its own "hard power." There are three signals for your reference:
The first point is to pay attention to the new actions of the giants and look for benefits.
In the last cycle, the Metaverse project became popular, and a large part of the reason behind it was that Facebook’s parent company changed its name to Meta. The giants have strong funds, vast resources, and professional team judgment; each of which is enough to push a certain subdivision track to a climax. Moreover, people generally agree that giants are very forward-looking, and it is easier to make profits by following in the footsteps of giants.
But sometimes you have to be careful. Giants often manipulate the market by spreading good news. When their funds withdraw early, there will be no signal, and people are easy to realize it later. Secondly, the vision of giants is not 100% accurate; for example, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, stated in its financial report for the first quarter of this year that its metaverse business unit, Reality Labs, had an operating loss of US$3.99 billion in the quarter.
But there is no doubt that if there are similar new actions by giants in the industry again, the market will not be so deserted.
The second point is to pay attention to whether there are some epoch-making applications.
Just as the appearance of StepN ushered in the era of P2E, running, skipping rope, and even "Sleep to Earn" were dizzying for a variety of projects, and even many domestic news media began to report on StepN, making everyone "be vigilant", which shows how popular it was at that time Exaggeration (Although StepN is not the first similar application, it is indeed the first to combine and break the circle with NFT).
If there is another similar application, it will definitely bring a lot of heat, just like the recently launched chain game Matr1x, which has made many users in the circle see the hope of chain games breaking the circle-chain games finally have gameplay. Just 4399 more. However, even if there are applications that break the circle again, we will be surprised by how well the economic model is designed, otherwise the final outcome will be a death spiral, and users will return to "Work to Earn".
The third point, pay attention to the data.
Although I said that the essence of plate rotation is the entry of funds, this happens to be the most important thing; wherever funds flow, there are hot spots, and there will be recovery. Good projects may not fall, but bad projects will not rise - of course, this must exclude some short-term gambling MEME projects.
We may not be able to know a lot of news at the first time, but the data must be the most accurate and truly reflect the market sentiment. In this regard, we can go to some data platforms (such as: NFTGo) and keep an eye on some important data indicators, such as: market temperature indicators, number of traders, profit and loss ratio, trading volume of giant whales, etc.; once the data changes , you can spend more time searching for the cause and make a judgment in the first place.
Every bear market is tough, but compared to the "blockchain" that was called a scam by many people five years ago, the current bear market is much gentler - because there are always people building, at least we believe that the bull market will come back, not Doubt the track will disappear.
So in the first cold winter of NFT, what can we do to make ourselves more prepared when the bull market comes? The following points are for your reference.
The first point is to watch more and move less.
The most painful investment must be when the bull market arrives and the money is gone. The hot projects in the bear market are basically MEME type, relatively strong gambling, and the profit-loss ratio is very low; but because the market has been inactive for too long, it will be more impatient, and it is easy to FOMO in and waste ammunition. It is easy for us to see wealth myths on the Internet (such as PEPE's 100,000 times income), but in reality, few people who are familiar with it are like this. The probability of getting rich is very low, and giving up illusions and being down-to-earth is the way for most people to accumulate wealth (10U God of War is not impossible).
Therefore, in a bear market, capital allocation must be done well. Everyone invests too much money, so watch more and move less.
The second point, keep in mind level one > level two in a bear market.
Even for projects such as Ordi that have created a myth of ten thousand times in the bear market, those who have made a large profit are basically participating in the primary market to create new ones, and most of the users who receive orders in the secondary market are in a locked state-because when you know The project is likely to be at a high level (NFT Labs reprinted the article "xxx" in the early days of the most BTC inscription, and the small partners who pay attention and operate it should be full of profits). Even if you are optimistic about the long-term of a certain project, it is best to wait for the FOMO sentiment of the project to pass before slowly buying the bottom. Projects that take off in the short term will always land when they land. After all, most large investors will also ship.
In the previous bull market, I suggested that everyone should get white single Mint instead of secondary purchases, especially in the bear market. And, the innovative projects with first launch will have more collection value, and the price will be more capricious; such as: Punks on the ETH chain, Sub10k on the BTC chain, etc.
The third point is to keep the focus on innovation.
Whether NFT can really have some application scenarios is only a matter of time, because it actually depends more on the popularity and acceptance of encryption and blockchain in reality. But even in a bear market, NFT has been innovating and improving. For example, the recently released ERC6551 protocol (one of its authors, Benny, is also the inventor of ERC721), which allows an on-chain NFT to contain coins, SBT, and other NFT assets and package them, which can bring many new narratives and applications Scenarios, such as: sovereignty of PFP NFT, equity NFT, splitting of virtual item attributes, etc.
Based on these protocols, there may also be some epoch-making applications (such as: according to each person's different personality, customizing each person's unique NFT and other interesting applications) to trigger a recovery in the market, it is always right to keep an eye on it. Poor information about new things is likely to be the source of your first pot of gold.
Conclusion
In every round of bull-bear transition, someone will enter and someone will leave; this is essentially a difference in long-term investment judgment. Therefore, you only need to keep your attention on the innovative products that you are optimistic about the track, the patience of long-term learning and appropriate trial and error, and you will soon have your own investment ideas.
And it should be noted that the popularity of NFT overseas far exceeds that in China. The recent popular "For the Culture" slogan, the controversy caused by the new DeGods action, and more interesting projects such as Milady, frEns, and Punks2023 have all occurred overseas, and few people in China have paid attention to them. Therefore, it is necessary to have an international perspective. Sometimes when you lose confidence, looking at the (NFT) world from another perspective will suddenly open up.