GoldenOctober2024

On May 2, Jin10 reported that Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investment at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, stated that the robust labor market data at this time provides the Federal Reserve (FED) with the space for patience. However, as the forward-looking outlook deteriorates, today's data feels somewhat retrospective, and the risk of economic weakness potentially leading the Federal Reserve (FED) to resume the easing cycle later this year still exists.

Jin10 reported on May 2 that Allianz Chief Economist El-Erian stated that the April non-farm report confirmed the "lingering American exceptionalism." This indicates that we still have some momentum as we enter a difficult period. The question is, is this momentum strong enough to get us through the tough times?

Jin10 data reported on May 2nd that the average hourly wage in the United States increased by 0.2% in April, with the year-on-year growth rate remaining roughly stable at 3.8% compared to March. Since 2022, wage growth has gradually slowed, but the inflation driving real income growth for workers is also slowing down. How long wage growth can be sustained will be a key factor in determining whether the increase in one-time tariffs will translate into a long-term inflation cycle.

Jin10 data reported on May 2, the USD Index DXY has risen more than 20 points in the short-term, currently at 99.96. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD have fallen more than 30 points in the short-term, while the USD/JPY has risen 50 points in the short-term.

Jin10 data reported on May 2nd, the US dollar weakened before the non-farm payroll release, while non-US currencies and Spot gold strengthened.

According to LSEG data, on May 2, Jin10 reported that the Hong Kong dollar reached a strong side convertibility guarantee level of 7.75 HKD against the US dollar on Friday. The last time the Hong Kong dollar reached the strong side convertibility guarantee level was at the end of 2020, and it touched the weak side convertibility guarantee level in 2022 and 2023.

Jin10 reported on May 2 that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban stated in Budapest on May 2 that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused Hungary approximately 20 billion euros in losses over the past three years. Now, Ukraine is asking the EU to support it in maintaining a military force of 1 million, and this part of the funding should have been used for the EU's economic development. Ukraine's accession to the EU would lead to the bankruptcy of the Hungarian economy. Orban stated that the EU proposed joint borrowing to fund Ukraine because they have realized that they cannot continue to support Ukraine with existing resources. It is now necessary to prevent Europe from falling into a debt spiral.

Jin10 data reported on May 2nd, Japan's Kyodo News stated that the United States is unwilling to exempt Japan from the 10% reciprocal tariff, highlighting the difficult negotiations between the U.S. and Japan. Analysts from the financial website Forexlive indicated that the situation is not progressing smoothly... The issue here is that the U.S. may want to retain the 10% reciprocal tariff for all economies and "sell" it as good news; the market might even appreciate it (considering it is still much lower than what was announced on April 2nd), but Japan has not made concessions on this point.

Jin10 reported on May 2 that on May 2 local time, Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal stated that the follow-up technical documents regarding the establishment of the Ukraine-U.S. Reconstruction Investment Fund (i.e., the U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Agreement) will not fall under the intergovernmental level, but rather the inter-institutional level. These follow-up agreements will be of an implementation nature (commercial or execution agreements) and will be signed by Ukrainian institutions and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), thus not requiring parliamentary approval. He stated that the relevant documents are ready and are expected to be signed shortly after the Ukrainian parliament approves the Mineral Agreement.

Jin10 data reported on May 2, economists at ING, Bert Colijn, stated that inflation in the Eurozone is unlikely to fall significantly in the future because the underlying resilience of the economy offsets the dampening effects of trade tariffs. Data released on Friday showed that prices in the Eurozone rose 2.2% year-on-year in April, remaining stable compared to the previous month. Colijn said that trade turmoil and the ensuing drop in energy prices have brought the inflation rate close to the European Central Bank's target of 2%. However, investors should not expect inflation to decline significantly in the coming months. He remarked, "Even if the trade war initially suppressed inflationary pressures, a robust Eurozone economy with a strong labor market and high wage growth is likely to keep inflation elevated to some extent in the coming months."

On May 2, Jin10 reported that on May 2 local time, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations released data showing that driven by the rise in prices of major grains, meats, and dairy products, the global food price index reached 128.3 points, up 1% month-on-month and up 7.6% year-on-year.

Jin10 data reported on May 2nd, the monetary policy authority of the Taiwan region: based on responsibilities, has timely intervened; will continue to strive to maintain dynamic stability of the New Taiwan Dollar, and closely follow the dynamics of the international financial market; the New Taiwan Dollar soared by 1.247 against the US Dollar during the trading session, marking the largest single-day rise since 1998.

Jin10 reported on May 2 that the Korean won has broken the key psychological barrier of 1400 against the US dollar, as the possibility of trade negotiations in the United States boosted the market sentiment for risk assets in the region. The US dollar fell by 1.9% against the Korean won at one point, reporting 1396.60, the lowest level since December of last year.

Jin10 Data, May 2 - After the inflation data in the Eurozone exceeded expectations, the euro continued to strengthen against the dollar, and European bond yields continued to rise. The CPI year-on-year in April remained at 2.2%, higher than the predicted 2.1%. The core inflation rate accelerated from 2.4% in April to 2.7%, exceeding the expected 2.5%. Data from LSEG shows that the market continues to digest expectations of a further 60 basis point rate cut by the Central Bank before the end of the year.

The inflation rate in the Eurozone remained at 2.2% in April, higher than expected, exacerbating the dilemma for the Central Bank of Europe. The bank may consider further interest rate cuts at the June meeting. Although economic performance has exceeded expectations, Trump's tariff policy has led to trade tensions, posing a threat to the economic outlook of the Eurozone.

Jin10 data reported on May 2nd that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other public data reports show that central banks around the world net purchased 17 tons of gold in March, with a total purchase volume of 35 tons and a sale volume of 18 tons, among which Uzbekistan reported a net sale of 11 tons. As the first quarter of this year comes to a close, gold demand remains strong.

Jin10 data, May 2 news: On May 2 local time, Ukraine's First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy, Svirydenko, stated in an interview with Ukrainian media that the Ukraine-U.S. Reconstruction Investment Fund will begin operations within one month or one and a half months after the Ukrainian Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) approves the mineral agreement reached with the United States. Svirydenko expressed hope for the fund to be launched as soon as possible, as it should become a tool for the recovery and development of key sectors of the Ukrainian economy. In addition, she stated that Ukraine is seeking to resolve the technical issues related to the establishment of the fund as soon as possible so that the fund can start operations immediately.

Jin10 reported on May 2 that Harrods department store in the UK confirmed on the 1st that recent network hackers attempted to breach its systems. This is the third reported cyber attack targeting major UK retailers following similar incidents with Marks & Spencer and Co-op Food. It is unclear whether these incidents are related. Harrods stated on the 1st that recent network hackers attempted to breach its network systems. The company's security team immediately took proactive measures to ensure system security, thus restricting access to the company's website that day. However, all stores remained open for business.

The New Taiwan Dollar surged against the US Dollar, driven by strong support from the Taiwan stock market, with a large influx of foreign capital. Exporters and retail investors are selling their foreign exchange, and retail investors are bringing their overseas investments back. Regulatory agencies are trying to stop the rise but cannot prevent the wave of selling. Overall, market sentiment is leaning towards panic.

Jin10 data reported on May 2, TikTok's profits in Australia doubled in 2024, with revenue also doubling. According to data, as of December 31, 2024, TikTok's annual revenue in Australia reached 679 million AUD (approximately 3.15 billion RMB), up from 375 million AUD the previous year; profits were 31.2 million AUD, nearly three times the 11.4 million AUD in 2023.